It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
