Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
